Facebook and it’s investors believe that climbing up the Exchange hill will only get them to a local maxima. If they go in that direction, they’ll be more similar to MySpace than the company they want to be…
What would happen if Facebook relented and offered the Exchange on all of its ads?
Two theories, which aren’t mutually exclusive:
Facebook’s overall revenue shoots up, as the company conforms to the way most of the Web ad world does business.
Facebook’s value flattens or drops, because Facebook will have conceded that it hasn’t been able to figure out a revolutionary new way to sell ads. Instead, it’s just like any other big Web publisher with lots of inventory. Like, say, Yahoo or AOL. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad business, but it’s a whole lot less exciting than a world-changing one.