It would be more helpful to understand the mechanics that Amazon uses to convert customers from paid to free. The conversion rate that’s calculated here is really high:
Today, new data being released suggests that a huge chunk of these customers — 70 percent! — will end up paying $99 for an annual membership, according to the Consumer Intelligence Research Partners.
That means, Amazon will convert nearly 7 million of those 10 million trial customers who signed up this holiday.